If you assume the teams are perfectly evenly matched, the team up 3-1 has an 87.5% chance of winning the series. The Sharks outshot the Pens today (and out Corsi-ed them in Game 3, I believe), so that's a promising improvement for them. But I'm not sure that translates into sustainable dominance of possession (just like the Penguins' previous dominance wasn't sustainable across four games). And by the eye-test, it seems like a great deal of the Sharks' recent goals have depended on a serious error from both a Pens skater and Murray. There's nothing to suggest that that can't and won't continue, but I also understand why it wouldn't necessarily inspire a lot of confidence.
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Re: Game Day Thread, June 6, 2016
From: (Anonymous)If you assume the teams are perfectly evenly matched, the team up 3-1 has an 87.5% chance of winning the series. The Sharks outshot the Pens today (and out Corsi-ed them in Game 3, I believe), so that's a promising improvement for them. But I'm not sure that translates into sustainable dominance of possession (just like the Penguins' previous dominance wasn't sustainable across four games). And by the eye-test, it seems like a great deal of the Sharks' recent goals have depended on a serious error from both a Pens skater and Murray. There's nothing to suggest that that can't and won't continue, but I also understand why it wouldn't necessarily inspire a lot of confidence.