To me there's a difference between believing that there are likely random NHL players who are likely closeted gay people and believing that a specific NHL player is definitely a closeted gay person. The first is just an assertion that there are likely closeted gay people in the NHL right now. This is not tinhatting, because you're just saying that, in this group of around 700 men, some of them are likely gay. The second is tinhatting, because you're insisting that this one, specific person is definitely gay.