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dekedangle_rpfanon2017-04-06 05:59 pm
dekedangle_rpf_mod) wrote in dekedangle_rpfanon2017-04-06 05:59 pm
#29 – Lay, Lie, or Laine?
This is the twenty-ninth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.
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Re: Fandom Venting
(Anonymous) 2017-06-03 09:18 am (UTC)(link)Sorry, I'm not a Fleury apologist or even especially a fan, just someone who likes stats and thinks you're being an asshole.
especially this: his -0.3 beats out Fleury's cumulative -0.8 through three rounds which supports what I said about how Murray has been better in the playoffs overall than Fleury so far.
I mean, yes? That's clearly why that bit is prefaced with Granted, I'm happy for Murray to be playing, not "you are 100% wrong and Fleury is god because"?!
I didn't say "Murray was better against Ottawa than Fleury was specifically against the Caps", which is what you're using that model to argue against. That doesn't even make sense as an argument.
Um, what? First of all, that's not my argument, the premise of the stat itself is to compare individual G performances. You can think it's flawed, but it makes perfect sense. Secondly, you said that the Pens don't beat the Sens without Murray, but that they certainly beat the Caps and Jackets if Murray plays instead of Fleury. The -0.3 stat suggests the first part of that is clearly not true (the Pens don't beat the Sens without their G's statistically below average performance??). As for the second...
I said "almost certainly" they would win, using his previous body of work against the Caps as my basis and the fact that Bobrovsky was fucking terrible against the Penguins. Win does not necessarily mean Murray stands on his head and does backflips to keep the puck out.
You do realize how much the Caps outshot and out xG-ed the Pens, right? Especially in games the Pens won? It's absurd to think that the Pens would "almost certainly" win in any hypothetical situation with those same circumstances, and even more so to think it wouldn't require a goalie to "stand on his head" to do it (even with Holtby shitting the bed). To assume that any goaltender, including MAF himself if for some reason the series had to be replayed, would "almost certainly" put up a good enough G performance for the Pens to win that series betrays a total ignorance of both goaltending and probability.
"Previous body of work" (MAF being historically awful against the Caps, Holtby historically amazing in the playoffs) didn't predict either MAF's or Holtby's performances that round. Being able to significantly outperform statistical expectations in a single series is not only far from certain, it's something that can't really be predicted at all, except maybe if you're looking for an already anomalous figure to regress to the mean. Looking at DTMA's list of best/worst series performances through round 3 (https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/868212512638078977) shows (1) a ton of goalies being anomalously amazing AND awful in different series in the same playoffs, and (2) only one goalie (Gibson) with anomalously amazing performances in more than one series.
Re: Fandom Venting
(Anonymous) 2017-06-03 03:50 pm (UTC)(link)I am grateful Murray played against Washington last year, because he beat them, and I'm not convinced Fleury could have replicated that performance. By the same token, I'm grateful Fleury played against Washington this year. A series win in hand is worth way more than a hypothetical series win in the bush, especially against a team as good as the Caps have been the last two years.