dekedangle_rpfanon | #24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

#24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

This is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.

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I'm depressed all over again about Preds v Sharks 😞

No, the correlation isn't exact. Myself and plenty of other people are in RPF and unlocked. It really depends on what you're using twitter for, and RPF fans on twitter in order to talk to their fellow fans tend to be locked.

I'd love to see that! The chart that got posted to meme earlier with the models' predictions versus the pundits' predictions had the models in order of how they've fared so far, and @DTMAboutheart's is third. I believe the two above him also have only been "wrong" on one each, but the rankings reward/punish the "confidence" of the model (so a model that predicted 60/40 Sharks vs Blues ranks gets more credit than one that predicted 51/49).

@IneffectiveMath made a good point the other day though that the models are not really predicting winners, they are predicting probabilities. It seems a little unfair to say a model predicted "wrong" if something happened that the model said had a 45% percent chance of happening.

Not necessarily. I follow a few people who are in RPF fandom and have unlocked accounts. Why?

ayrt

Yeah, before the playoffs, he posted a series of graphs with his model's predictions for each team's probability of winning each round:

https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/720260336125874176

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/penguins-odd-couple-show-strength/

Yeah, that's why I would want a post like that to include things like PDO, take a closer look at series where there was less agreement or the outcome was different than expected by most and maybe try to explain why, things like that. I'm not sure if all people with stats-based models on Twitter have disclosed which metrics they've included, but it could be very interesting.

Were there this many models for last year's playoffs? I don't remember them, but I was less active on Twitter back then.

Not necessarily. I'm unlocked because I want to be able to reply to people I follow, even if they don't follow me - like a reporter, stats person, etc.

I have heard that Dubinsky was probably a Torts thing, so at least that's one guy I'm not blaming on management. The management team was posted four days ago in this thread. I guess you missed it.

http://dekedangle-rpfanon.dreamwidth.org/6489.html?thread=30384985#cmt30384985

I'm not sure why you'd find the quote infuriating. That was kind of a given? It's not like we all thought he was a secret Canadian agent trying to build a team to lose for the greater glory of Canada. I just find the whole thing depressing, especially as a Kings fan. It doesn't fill me with confidence about the direction we're going in.

Without actually knowing what the conversation was or what questions he was asked, Lombardi's quotes are about being a teammate and then the one quote about knowing how you fit in and what your role is right away because of the timeline. I wish we knew whether he was specifically asked about Kessel or just about the makeup of the team in general. Because it kind of sounds like he didn't pick him for being socially awkward, which is just so backward, even for a temporary team. Of all the US-born "skill" players, Kessel is the one who most demonstrably has proven that he can work on a line with grit guys with less skill. He would be perfect for this team! There's nothing wrong with a team having possession guys who can't score, but if you're going to limit your scorers, choose ones who work well with grit guys! Like Phil Kessel! And I'd put Tyler Johnson's partnership with Ondrej Palat in a similar category to a lesser degree. Palat's a fast skater, but he's still very much a grinder. It's so face-palmingly short-sighted. It's like reverse-East Coast Bias where you have to wonder if he relied on media reports rather than watching the player.

Ah.

ayrt

I'd love if someone would do that. A lot of analytics folks' twitters and blogs have some information about what their models take into account and privilege, so even if none of them make a big detailed post comparing all the models, we could possibly try it ourselves on meme. With the caveat that I am really not a fan of looking at PDO in the playoffs and especially in the context of a single series, where PDO is a zero sum game and basically just amplifies the difference between save percentages: the team with the higher sv will always have the higher PDO.

Given how she complained about it, and the rest of the media fell in line to decry it and say they would never do such a thing, I'm guessing that one guy was being extra terrible.

Of course people would know when players have kids because they'd be seen with them.

Now we know why Sid does all that volunteering with children. He's hiding his secret kid(s) among them.

He's not wrong. That is one nice ear. I'm glad he outed himself as the helmet sticker model.

Geno gave a Russian interview yesterday about Nikita, he's already looking ahead to more kids lol

http://www.sovsport.ru/gazeta/article-item/907685

He also talks about his wedding, which will be in Moscow next summer it sounds like. He says his teammates have been asking for invitations and that he'll be happy if Sid comes.

The boys will give it to me about this, but as my family and close friends know, Serendipity (with Kate Beckinsale and John Cusack) would have to be in my top 5 all time movies. A must watch if you haven’t seen. I have 'You Cant Fight Fate' tattooed on my arm largely because of this flick. I am a sucker for all things that come from a pre ordained plan by a higher power. But has that hurt my love life? A lot.

OMG. He got tattooed because of a romantic movie. He would be a great one for a soulmate fic where he has all these romantic ideals built up only to get paired with someone he feels he has nothing in common with or with someone who's always dreaded finding his mate and thinks it's the worst thing to ever happen.

na

I'm assuming they mean the rookies. Sid had Sheary and Geno has Rust.

the team with the higher sv will always have the higher PDO.

To be more precise, the team with the higher save percentage will always have PDO > 100 while the team with the lower save percentage will always have PDO < 100.

Mine is locked so I can bitch about work. I don't care if anyone actually reads my tweets about RPF (except maybe my employers).

ayrt

I said PDO when I really meant SV%, I forgot that shooting percentage only includes shots that reach the goal.
Related, if anyone knows of a good article about the differences between looking at shots on goal and shot attempts and what kind of shots are included, please let me know.

ayrt

I believe shot attempts = shots on goal + shots missed + blocked shots. A lot of analytics people have said "shot attempts" should more accurately just be called "shots".

Just in case I forget my tl is constantly reminding me that Sidney Crosby is the best person that has ever graced this earth with their presence.

Another Martinez fan! He's at the top of my list for people there should be more fic about in this fandom.

LOL.

I think Nylander's getting shipped with Kapanen, but A++ on the fic name.

http://rarepairfest.livejournal.com/32711.html

Nominations are open!

Rules & Dates: http://rarepairfest.livejournal.com/32144.html

Most hockey ships would qualify in this exchange. There just has to fewer than 250 completed fics over 1000 words.

You have to offer 3-10 fandoms, so it's a good idea that if you're on the fence about signing up to make nominations now, just to make sure you'll have options for signing up later.

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#24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

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