dekedangle_rpfanon | #24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

This is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.

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I'm glad Pittsburgh lost, because it'll hopefully shut up everyone yelling to trade Fleury/dump him in the expansion draft. (Not that this one game is reflective of Murray. Just that it would have been stupid to boot an experienced, proven goaltender for one who's never played a full NHL season, when you can keep them both fairly cheaply for at least another year and see how Murray progresses.)

DTMAboutHeart predicts that there's 1.6% chance that Murray is truly better than MAF (based on statistical analysis, not his ~opinion): https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/740961814435893249

I feel like this is useless without know what he's basing it on.

It's explained in the threaded replies.

Thanks. I don't know why I always forget to do that. This explanation is apparently too technical for me, though. :(

In simplified terms, it's basically taking each goalie's stats and determining how likely it is that those stats are truly representative of how good the goalie is based on the sample size (amount of shots faced), keeping in mind the phenomenon of regression toward the mean (the tendency of a variable to be closer to average on second measurement if the first measurement was extreme, and to have been closer to average on first measurement if the second is extreme) and the fact that better goalies get more starts and therefore face more shots.

ayrt Thank you for the link! Now I have another thing to beat my Fleury-hating friend over the head with lol ;)

Given the limitations that DTMAboutHeart describes, plus small sample size for Murray and his age, I think that graph will look more than a little different this time next year. But I think it's probably accurate right now, hopefully Rutherford shares this view and doesn't gamble on Murray the way he did with Ward.

ayrt

The graph will definitely change as long as Murray continues to play, especially since both regression and confidence are based on the small sample size! But yeah, Rutherford seems like a guy who has learned from past mistakes, and even without the stats to back it up, making a gamble like that on a young goalie with so little experience seems unwise.

Have you all seen the Niemi/Lehtonen graph?

https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/740969696539738112

I'm amused by the graph, but completely befuddled by the conclusion. If the graphs are the same, why does Niemi have a 54% chance of being better than Lehtonen?

a-ayrt-rt

Niemi's average is a teeny tiny bit better than Lehtonen's in an almost identical sample size, so it's pretty much almost a 50/50 toss up which one of the two is actually better.

Legit, all I gathered from their stats this year was: "wow, we have two goalies that, well, have the same effect" and added the similar stat thing to burn on the soulmate fuel pile

That's what I liked about it! If that's not a soulmate graph, I don't know what is. They've both had very long careers with completely different teams until now, and to see their stats match each other so much is amazing.

.. aren't those based on career 5v5? How eerie.

#24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

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