#29 – Lay, Lie, or Laine?
Apr. 6th, 2017 05:59 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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dekedangle_rpfanonThis is the twenty-ninth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.
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Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)Anyway, to the rest of the thread: the shared Conn Smythe trophy is one of the more ridiculous concepts I've ever seen and no one would even be considering it if Fleury wasn't one of the goalies.
In fact, if Fleury hadn't soiled himself repeatedly in the playoffs for so many years, people would be talking about his run like they're talking about Rinne now. It's just defensiveness because he was the worst playoff goalie in the league for several years and now he managed to put together 9 good games.
Murray is going to come close to matching Fleury in wins (he'll be two shy if the Penguins pull this out) in far fewer games, with far better numbers--the same better numbers he had all throughout the regular season, behind the same terrible defense that everyone is blaming Fleury's struggles on. Murray has been better than Fleury this postseason, just like he was better than Fleury in the regular season.
We don't get past Ottawa without Murray. But we almost certainly get past Columbus and Washington with Murray instead of Fleury.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)In your haste to be a condescending dick, you wildly misinterpreted my remark, which wasn't that Matt Murray was a no-name nobody who everyone thought would be bad but got lucky to be good for a little bit. It's that his achievement was so remarkable because he did so much more than what you would normally expect or demand from a typical young rookie backup with 9 NHL games. But just because he exceeded expectations more than any other player doesn't mean he contributed the most to the team's success.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)According to DTMAboutHeart's Goals Saved Above Expectation (based on his xG stat), MAF saved 1.94 goals more than expected in round 2, while Murray saved 0.3 goals fewer than expected in round 3. That suggests the Pens only needed statistically average goaltending to get past Ottawa, and Murray provided slightly less than that. Granted, I'm happy for Murray to be playing, his -0.3 beats out Fleury's cumulative -0.8 through three rounds, and one model isn't the be-all, end-all of goaltender stats. But DTMA's evaluation is based on statistics and analysis, and yours seems to be based on being defensive of Murray and tired of Fleury.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)I hadn't seen those stats. Bless MAF, is all I have to say about that.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)None of this actually refutes my claims? Especially this: his -0.3 beats out Fleury's cumulative -0.8 through three rounds which supports what I said about how Murray has been better in the playoffs overall than Fleury so far. I didn't say "Murray was better against Ottawa than Fleury was specifically against the Caps", which is what you're using that model to argue against. That doesn't even make sense as an argument.
How does Fleury wildly outperforming statistical expectations mean that Murray would not necessarily do the same thing in the same circumstances, against the same team? I said "almost certainly" they would win, using his previous body of work against the Caps as my basis and the fact that Bobrovsky was fucking terrible against the Penguins. Win does not necessarily mean Murray stands on his head and does backflips to keep the puck out.
I'm not tired of Fleury. I'm tired of Fleury fans plus the media making his admittedly great goaltending performance out to be some kind of heroic feat never accomplished by any other goaltender. Fleury was a backup that performed very well, kind of like Scott Darling in 2015 or Tomas Vokoun in 2013. Nobody was saying he should share the Conn Smythe with Keith. You people are martyring him as if he didn't complain about getting (rightfully) benched for the better starting goalie.
Re: Fandom Venting
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From: (Anonymous)How does Fleury wildly outperforming statistical expectations mean that Murray would not necessarily do the same thing in the same circumstances, against the same team?
If a goaltender's performance is already an anomaly, then getting equally anomalous performances from two goaltenders in the same circumstances is even more wildly unlikely. That's completely absurd.
I'm tired of Fleury fans plus the media making his admittedly great goaltending performance out to be some kind of heroic feat never accomplished by any other goaltender.
Now you're just strawmanning. Literally nobody has said this.
What's the matter? Are you out of nice numbers to misapply but really throw around so people can just love Flower even more? <333
Also, on a personal note, you're an asshole.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)Yeah, maybe Murray would've stood on his head like Flower did, but it's sure as hell not something to count on. Flower was really, really good in the first two rounds. We'll never know if Murray could have done as well, and never know if Flower could have bounced back from his bad game. I'm just going to be thankful for the wins we have.
On another note, why are people acting like Flower's thrown a tantrum? He said he was disappointed to be replaced. That's completely within bounds for a player to say. What do you expect, him to say 'oh yeah I was going to shit the crease going forward, Sullivan was absolutely right to replace me'. Players want to play.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)Sorry, I'm not a Fleury apologist or even especially a fan, just someone who likes stats and thinks you're being an asshole.
especially this: his -0.3 beats out Fleury's cumulative -0.8 through three rounds which supports what I said about how Murray has been better in the playoffs overall than Fleury so far.
I mean, yes? That's clearly why that bit is prefaced with Granted, I'm happy for Murray to be playing, not "you are 100% wrong and Fleury is god because"?!
I didn't say "Murray was better against Ottawa than Fleury was specifically against the Caps", which is what you're using that model to argue against. That doesn't even make sense as an argument.
Um, what? First of all, that's not my argument, the premise of the stat itself is to compare individual G performances. You can think it's flawed, but it makes perfect sense. Secondly, you said that the Pens don't beat the Sens without Murray, but that they certainly beat the Caps and Jackets if Murray plays instead of Fleury. The -0.3 stat suggests the first part of that is clearly not true (the Pens don't beat the Sens without their G's statistically below average performance??). As for the second...
I said "almost certainly" they would win, using his previous body of work against the Caps as my basis and the fact that Bobrovsky was fucking terrible against the Penguins. Win does not necessarily mean Murray stands on his head and does backflips to keep the puck out.
You do realize how much the Caps outshot and out xG-ed the Pens, right? Especially in games the Pens won? It's absurd to think that the Pens would "almost certainly" win in any hypothetical situation with those same circumstances, and even more so to think it wouldn't require a goalie to "stand on his head" to do it (even with Holtby shitting the bed). To assume that any goaltender, including MAF himself if for some reason the series had to be replayed, would "almost certainly" put up a good enough G performance for the Pens to win that series betrays a total ignorance of both goaltending and probability.
"Previous body of work" (MAF being historically awful against the Caps, Holtby historically amazing in the playoffs) didn't predict either MAF's or Holtby's performances that round. Being able to significantly outperform statistical expectations in a single series is not only far from certain, it's something that can't really be predicted at all, except maybe if you're looking for an already anomalous figure to regress to the mean. Looking at DTMA's list of best/worst series performances through round 3 (https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/868212512638078977) shows (1) a ton of goalies being anomalously amazing AND awful in different series in the same playoffs, and (2) only one goalie (Gibson) with anomalously amazing performances in more than one series.
Re: Fandom Venting
From: (Anonymous)I am grateful Murray played against Washington last year, because he beat them, and I'm not convinced Fleury could have replicated that performance. By the same token, I'm grateful Fleury played against Washington this year. A series win in hand is worth way more than a hypothetical series win in the bush, especially against a team as good as the Caps have been the last two years.