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dekedangle_rpfanonThis is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.
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THE RULES
1. Mods retain the right to delete, freeze, and/or screen threads and comments.
2. Meme rules do not require warnings.
3. Respect flock. Do not repost or share information from private tumblrs, locked twitter accounts, flocked LJ posts, etc.
4. No linking fans to their real life identities.
5. No looks bashing or body shaming. This applies to players and people associated with those players and their clubs, as well as fellow fans.
6. No embedded music.
7. No embedded images.
8. No spamming the meme, whether through repeated comments or other means.
9. No discussing trolling, individual trolls, or their efforts.
Meme rules do not require spoiler cuts. However, this layout does allow for them. Any of the following tags will create a spoiler cut when closed: <div cut>, <span cut>, <font cut>, <font color="white">
If you have any questions or concerns, please direct them to The Mod Post.
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Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Pundits overwhelmingly in favor of Sharks, stats models overwhelmingly in favor of Pens. Any theories as to the reason for the discrepancy? Are people overestimating the Sharks (and if so, why?), or are analytics broadly failing to account for something (if so, what)?
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)If the Penguins played weaker teams and had better stats, it doesn't necessarily translate to their matchup against the Sharks. Only the Caps were a fully healthy threat. The Rangers were not looking so great. And the Lightning would have been stronger with Bishop and Stamkos and a less rusty Stralman.
I don't think the Pens will be a pushover by any means, but just doing a matchup position by position (forwards, defensemen, goal) - the Sharks are both healthier and stronger. Especially the Pens blueline look to be getting pretty thin.
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)And MoneyPuck's model (I think?) uses playoff data as well, but IDK if roster changes are taken into account.
I haven't looked close enough into any of the others, although there have been several where I've tried and couldn't find documentation anywhere. I had to see several of omgitsdomi's charts before I could even figure out the difference between the purple bracket and the orange bracket (one gives a certain weight to expert opinion aka the eye test).
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)I... don't agree with this re: goaltending. Martin Jones has been great, but Vasilevsky's ECF performance was absolutely phenomenal -- most impressive player on either team.
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Vasilevskiy tried his hardest to make up for the Bolts defense forgetting how to do anything. I think the Sharks defense is much stronger comparatively, which gives Jones more help than the Bolts gave Vasilevskiy (and makes it easier for him to get shutouts, to be quite frank), but I think it's hard to argue that the Lightning have a weaker goalie than the Sharks when imo the Vasilevskiy+Bishop combo is one of the best in the league.
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Yeah -- defense absolutely does affect goaltending, mentally, in terms of confidence, but also in decision-making, in what the goalie can and can't trust his D to do. Lundqvist's deteriorating performance in the first round imo was mostly the result of the failure of the Rangers' defense. And Jones has had nights where he's let in tons of goals due to the failure of his D more than his own performance. And all that makes Vasilevsky's performance behind Tampa's D all the more impressive.
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Is there a way to do a defense-independent goalie stat at all?
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
From: (Anonymous)Not that I know of, but @nmercad and others do interesting stats work on goalies, there's probably links on his twitter!
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
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From: (Anonymous)Yep! I'm not sure a 55% chance of winning means a hill of beans in a sample size this small. Or, well, it means an even smaller hill of beans than a 65% chance of winning.
I kind of wish I didn't have a rooting interest in one of these teams, because man is this going to be some fun hockey for neutral bystanders. I also hope to have fun, but the stressed-out kind.
Re: SCF Predictions Thread
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From: (Anonymous)Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that the stats models were predicting probabilities overwhelmingly in favor of the Pens. I was just interested in the unanimity of different models being in favor of one team, versus pundits being nearly unanimously in favor of the other -- and what can be said about analytics, the eye test, etc. I can't recall another series where that was the case.
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