#24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

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This is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.

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Comments

SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Most of our brackets are lost causes at this point. But why not another go at a guessing game? With more information to educate our guesses with too.

Who do you think:
- wins the Cup?
- wins the Conn Smythe?
In how many games?

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Sharks, Thornton, 5.

In my wildest dreams: Pens, Cullen, 7.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

What I'd like to see - Sharks, Pavelski (yay, USA!), 6.

What will probably happen - Pens, Crosby , 7.

The Sharks have looked great, but the Pens really have a way making teams look bad and I'm a little iffy on Jones. But since I hate the Pens, I'm hoping that you guys choosing the Sharks are right. Kessel has been better than Crosby so far, but Crosby has looked great in the last few games and I could see him getting the edge in the finals.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

sa - oops, didn't mean to reply directly to you.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Sharks in 6. They've been playing a much more consistent defensive game compared to both ECF teams. And I think the Penguins' injuries in the blue line catches up to them this series.

Conn Smythe is a hard one, but I'll go with Couture or Burns, depending on who plays the bigger role in the finals.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

I guess I'll be the first to predict a Pens win. 7 games. Kessel, hopefully, but Crosby is also a possibility if he pots a GWG or two.

Surprised people picking the Sharks aren't putting their money on Pavelski for Conn Smythe. I feel like he's the favorite right now for them.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

My heart wants sharks in 6 with Pavelski but the playoff gods hate me so it'll probably be pens in 5 with idek, Murray or somebody.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

No no, the Sharks know how to mess with us better than that. Pens in 7, with somebody unexpected just crushing us the last couple games and taking the CS.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Ultimate scenario: Sharks win first three by increasingly wide margins, then lose the following four in either crushingly close games or even more crushing blowouts. Slow pan over Jumbo's broken, utterly defeated face at the close of game 7.

..shit, now I'm sad.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

I really want to say Penguins in 5 with Phil Kessel.

But realistically, probably Sharks in 6 with Joe Pavelski.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Exact same here. Fuck the Sharks are scary.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

They've got 4 players who are PPG this playoff, Couture, Pavelski, Burns and Thornton. And they've got a lethal powerplay (which IMO can really hurt the Penguins if they don't keep their cool). Defensive depth in general, with Vlasic and Burns and their goalie has .920SV% with 3 shutouts.

A healthy Penguins team might counter them, but at this stage, it feels like the Sharks have got all the matchup advantages.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

SAME.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

All the pens hate makes me sad. I'm sorry pens fans have been the worst and made you hate us nonnies - some of us are good people. I swear.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

I'm rooting for the Sharks because I'd love for a cupless team to get it and I'd love for their old guys to get a cup, but I won't actually be mad if the Pens win it, since I like them, too.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

I like it. There's a beautiful juxtaposition of a team full of scrappy misfits who love each other deeply being seen as some kind of villains or an evil empire. If the Penguins win, I will be very, very happy, but it adds something that so many people will be mad about it. :D

The Caps series was a microcosm of this. Lots of people rooting for the Caps; lots of salt when the Pens turned the Caps into the same old Caps. I just got some popcorn and added butter to all that salt. It was delicious.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

By all means I should hate you, and I did, deeply until that last game against late in the season.

But damn it all if the Penguins aren't a fun team to watch!

And some of your fans are in fact insufferable (still holding a grudge against anyone who made fun of my team making playoffs) , but so are some of any teams' fans and while most of my new found love is probably rooted in how happy your team makes one of my dearest friends, it's been a lot of fun watching them succeed!

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

I can't remember who has home ice advantage, but I think it will be Sharks in 5 or 6 depending with Pavelski (Burns a distant second) getting the Conn Smythe. They've just been curb-stomping everyone. If it goes to a Game 7, though, I still say Sharks win, but Kessel will get the Conn Smythe.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Somehow this is the first Stanley Cup Final that has involved two teams named after animals. This seems impossible, given how many animal-named teams there are, but none of the dynasty teams involved animals, which probably helps explain it.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Animals in a triangle, holding a stick! lol.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

https://twitter.com/omgitsdomi/status/737375687699529729

Pundits overwhelmingly in favor of Sharks, stats models overwhelmingly in favor of Pens. Any theories as to the reason for the discrepancy? Are people overestimating the Sharks (and if so, why?), or are analytics broadly failing to account for something (if so, what)?

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

On the Pens side, if they're using analytics from the regular season or even the previous rounds as a predictive model, they might not be taking into account Daley's injury which happened fairly late, and the fact that the Lightning straight up are weaker defensively and in goal (and also more injured) compared to the Sharks.

If the Penguins played weaker teams and had better stats, it doesn't necessarily translate to their matchup against the Sharks. Only the Caps were a fully healthy threat. The Rangers were not looking so great. And the Lightning would have been stronger with Bishop and Stamkos and a less rusty Stralman.

I don't think the Pens will be a pushover by any means, but just doing a matchup position by position (forwards, defensemen, goal) - the Sharks are both healthier and stronger. Especially the Pens blueline look to be getting pretty thin.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

They're all pretty close, though. Only one even goes over a 60% chance. Given how unpredictable hockey can be - just in this playoffs I know my team lost games we dominated and won games where the other time had us on the ropes - it looks like it's anyone's series. Exciting! Stressful. Exciting!

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

The numbers from the pundits and the numbers from the models don't even mean the same things, do they? The models are saying "this team has this % likelihood of winning," whereas the pundit numbers are "this % of people think this team will win." Right? Or am I misunderstanding? Those seem like different things.

Re: SCF Predictions Thread

[(Anonymous)]

Both team goalie are going to get lit up.