#24 – Not Sure If Serious or Playing Dumba

[dekedangle_rpf_mod]

This is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.

THE RULES

1. Mods retain the right to delete, freeze, and/or screen threads and comments.
2. Meme rules do not require warnings.
3. Respect flock. Do not repost or share information from private tumblrs, locked twitter accounts, flocked LJ posts, etc.
4. No linking fans to their real life identities.
5. No looks bashing or body shaming. This applies to players and people associated with those players and their clubs, as well as fellow fans.
6. No embedded music.
7. No embedded images.
8. No spamming the meme, whether through repeated comments or other means. 
9. No discussing trolling, individual trolls, or their efforts.





Meme rules do not require spoiler cuts. However, this layout does allow for them. Any of the following tags will create a spoiler cut when closed: <div cut>, <span cut>, <font cut>, <font color="white">

If you have any questions or concerns, please direct them to The Mod Post. 

Threaded View
Flat View
Top-Level Comment View

Next post opens at 5,000 comments.

Comments

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

So I guess Caps/Pens really did end up being the real SCF. I doubt the series makes it back to Pittsburgh.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I disagree on both counts. Two one-goal games decided late, and you think the Pens are gonna sweep the Sharks?

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

na

Yeah, I don't think so. I'm not sure it's going to seven, but I definitely don't see a sweep.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

ayrt

Yeah, not even vastly overmatched teams this playoffs have gotten swept, not sure why two close games suggests it'll happen to the Sharks.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

The Pens were way better than the Sharks in both games. Despite the close score, it never felt like the Sharks had a chance.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

The Pens also pretty consistently outplayed the Lightning and that series still went to 7...

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

ayrt

The Pens have definitely been mostly the better team over two games, but it's silly to think that the Sharks, a good team, won't make adjustments and push back playing at home. And with the way that Jones was playing and some of the chances the Sharks were getting, I definitely wouldn't say it felt like they had no chance when the games were tied.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I don't think it's going to be a sweep, but the Penguins have outplayed the Sharks by a LOT. The score doesn't reflect that but the possession stats do. This could be a sweep if the Penguins can learn to finish and their PP gets going.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Well, that would be amazing for me a Pens fan in Norcal.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Penguins dominated in shot based possession stats, but interestingly xG at least in Game 2 was much closer: Sharks 1.8, Pens 2.1. (Also interestingly, the only playoff result not predicted by the xG model was Islanders over Panthers; @DTMAboutheart's model's playoff rankings: https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/738192577996804100.)

Even if the Sharks don't manage to gain the upper hand in possession at some point during the series, I could definitely see the Pens losing a couple despite numerically outshooting their opposition. I wouldn't die of shock if they swept, but Games 1 and 2 don't make me think it's really in danger of happening.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I hope that after the playoffs someone will make a detailed post about how different prediction models fared.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I'd love to see that! The chart that got posted to meme earlier with the models' predictions versus the pundits' predictions had the models in order of how they've fared so far, and @DTMAboutheart's is third. I believe the two above him also have only been "wrong" on one each, but the rankings reward/punish the "confidence" of the model (so a model that predicted 60/40 Sharks vs Blues ranks gets more credit than one that predicted 51/49).

@IneffectiveMath made a good point the other day though that the models are not really predicting winners, they are predicting probabilities. It seems a little unfair to say a model predicted "wrong" if something happened that the model said had a 45% percent chance of happening.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Yeah, that's why I would want a post like that to include things like PDO, take a closer look at series where there was less agreement or the outcome was different than expected by most and maybe try to explain why, things like that. I'm not sure if all people with stats-based models on Twitter have disclosed which metrics they've included, but it could be very interesting.

Were there this many models for last year's playoffs? I don't remember them, but I was less active on Twitter back then.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Wow, that's amazing. Looks like the Kings, Preds and Blues just got hosed being matched-up against the Sharks when they were all so high. Did he ever post his model before the playoffs started?

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I'm depressed all over again about Preds v Sharks 😞

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

ayrt

Yeah, before the playoffs, he posted a series of graphs with his model's predictions for each team's probability of winning each round:

https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/720260336125874176

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Ah.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

Interestingly (though surely not coincidentally), that top five also corresponds to top five Fenwick in last 20 regular season GP (although not in the same order): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj_B6ItUgAArAM7.jpg.

Makes me wonder about what inputs the different models use. @shane1342o's model, which has been the most successful so far, clearly with some different metrics -- he said he had the winner of Pens/Caps as the cup favorite, whereas @DTMAboutheart had Caps ranked 11th, behind all the teams faced by the Sharks.

Would there actually be wider interest on meme in the kind of post another anon mentioned, comparing the different stats models in detail? I don't want to do it and clog up meme if no one cares, but I'm pretty curious now.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

na

No, please, go ahead. I failed out of following the stats community on twitter in a fit of pique sometime during the season, so I haven't seen any of their stuff.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

sa

Sorry @DTMAbourheart with Caps 7th, not 11th

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I would love to see such a post, nonnie.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

lol what. It's not like the Pens had to play 7 games after that or anything.

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

quiet down satan

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

So you want the Sharks to win the next three games, huh?

Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016

[(Anonymous)]

I see you trying to jinx the Penguins! We all know how well they play with 2-game leads in the playoffs.