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dekedangle_rpfanonThis is the twenty-fourth post of Deke Dangle RPF Anon, a community for all your ice hockey anon meme needs.
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THE RULES
1. Mods retain the right to delete, freeze, and/or screen threads and comments.
2. Meme rules do not require warnings.
3. Respect flock. Do not repost or share information from private tumblrs, locked twitter accounts, flocked LJ posts, etc.
4. No linking fans to their real life identities.
5. No looks bashing or body shaming. This applies to players and people associated with those players and their clubs, as well as fellow fans.
6. No embedded music.
7. No embedded images.
8. No spamming the meme, whether through repeated comments or other means.
9. No discussing trolling, individual trolls, or their efforts.
Meme rules do not require spoiler cuts. However, this layout does allow for them. Any of the following tags will create a spoiler cut when closed: <div cut>, <span cut>, <font cut>, <font color="white">
If you have any questions or concerns, please direct them to The Mod Post.
Threaded View
Flat View
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Next post opens at 5,000 comments.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Yeah, I don't think so. I'm not sure it's going to seven, but I definitely don't see a sweep.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Yeah, not even vastly overmatched teams this playoffs have gotten swept, not sure why two close games suggests it'll happen to the Sharks.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)The Pens have definitely been mostly the better team over two games, but it's silly to think that the Sharks, a good team, won't make adjustments and push back playing at home. And with the way that Jones was playing and some of the chances the Sharks were getting, I definitely wouldn't say it felt like they had no chance when the games were tied.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Even if the Sharks don't manage to gain the upper hand in possession at some point during the series, I could definitely see the Pens losing a couple despite numerically outshooting their opposition. I wouldn't die of shock if they swept, but Games 1 and 2 don't make me think it's really in danger of happening.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)@IneffectiveMath made a good point the other day though that the models are not really predicting winners, they are predicting probabilities. It seems a little unfair to say a model predicted "wrong" if something happened that the model said had a 45% percent chance of happening.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Were there this many models for last year's playoffs? I don't remember them, but I was less active on Twitter back then.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)I'd love if someone would do that. A lot of analytics folks' twitters and blogs have some information about what their models take into account and privilege, so even if none of them make a big detailed post comparing all the models, we could possibly try it ourselves on meme. With the caveat that I am really not a fan of looking at PDO in the playoffs and especially in the context of a single series, where PDO is a zero sum game and basically just amplifies the difference between save percentages: the team with the higher sv will always have the higher PDO.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)To be more precise, the team with the higher save percentage will always have PDO > 100 while the team with the lower save percentage will always have PDO < 100.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)I said PDO when I really meant SV%, I forgot that shooting percentage only includes shots that reach the goal.
Related, if anyone knows of a good article about the differences between looking at shots on goal and shot attempts and what kind of shots are included, please let me know.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
- From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2016-06-02 07:44 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Yeah, before the playoffs, he posted a series of graphs with his model's predictions for each team's probability of winning each round:
https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/720260336125874176
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Makes me wonder about what inputs the different models use. @shane1342o's model, which has been the most successful so far, clearly with some different metrics -- he said he had the winner of Pens/Caps as the cup favorite, whereas @DTMAboutheart had Caps ranked 11th, behind all the teams faced by the Sharks.
Would there actually be wider interest on meme in the kind of post another anon mentioned, comparing the different stats models in detail? I don't want to do it and clog up meme if no one cares, but I'm pretty curious now.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)No, please, go ahead. I failed out of following the stats community on twitter in a fit of pique sometime during the season, so I haven't seen any of their stuff.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Sorry @DTMAbourheart with Caps 7th, not 11th
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Cool, it seems like there's at least three of us, so yay! I might not have time to do all of it, but I'll try to post after the playoffs are over, in a separate thread so people can ignore it if they don't care.
Re: Game Day Thread: June 1, 2016
From: (Anonymous)Feels kind of old skool fandom. Reminds me of how there used to be a website that would track all the various sources of Buffy spoiler leaks over the course of the season and analyze which places ended up being more trustworthy regarding what happened on the show.